Misinformation about obesity trends has us a little cranky. For example, Reason Magazine is telling us, “Obesity in the U.S. is finally declining. You can (probably) thank Ozempic.” This is wrong on both counts. First and most basic, two data points do not make a trend. The latest NHANES data on obesity shows that the absolute number for obesity prevalence in 2021 through 2023 was 40.3%. For 2017 through 2020, the number was 41.9%. The insignificant difference between these two numbers does not mean obesity is dropping.

Considering all of the data they have, the authors of this latest CDC report say simply:

“From 2013–2014 through August 2021–August 2023, the age-adjusted prevalence of obesity in adults did not change significantly, while the age-adjusted prevalence of severe obesity increased from 7.7% to 9.7%.”

So the sum and substance is that the longstanding trend of rising obesity may be leveling out. Severe obesity continues to grow.

The Impact of GLP1s

Obviously then, the recent buzz about GLP-1 agonists for obesity is not a reason to think obesity rates are dropping. Because there is no evidence for a drop.

But could it account for the leveling in obesity rates? The answer again is simply no. This is because the data that supports a conclusion that obesity rates may be stabilizing goes all the way back to 2013 and ends in 2023. Even in 2023, these new drugs were only barely coming into use by relatively few people for obesity.

It makes great clickbait to suggest that a magical “Ozempic effect” might explain some moderation in obesity prevalence trends. But it’s false.

Wishful Thinking, Nothing New

We do hope and wish that better treatment for obesity will help to bring the elevated obesity prevalence of obesity into better control. Wishful thinking is comforting and it’s nothing new. The blips you see in the chart of obesity prevalence above have, over the years, prompted people to exclaim that their efforts to control obesity were working. Headlines splashed across our screens. But the health effects of obesity kept on growing,

Wishful thinking is quite natural. But it’s no substitute for facts and reason.

The Dynamics Are Changing

It is certainly true that the dynamics of obesity prevalence are changing. This is evident in the fact that overall obesity rates may be leveling out while severe obesity is rising. Biologically, some people are vulnerable to weight gain, while others are resistant.

We have noted before that trends in the population with a BMI of 25 or less seem to be leveling out. For a long time, it has been declining, but it now seems that about 25% of the population may be resistant to weight gain that takes them above a BMI of 25.

So yes, we may have hit the peak of overweight prevalence. We may even be at the peak of obesity prevalence. But the severity of obesity, for those who already have obesity, is growing.

Click here for the report from CDC and here for further perspective.

The Straight Path, painting by Nicholas Roerich / WikiArt